The 2023/24 financial year is now complete, concluding what can be broadly labelled the “hope” phase for financial markets.

A 20% return for global equity markets was only just eclipsed by a 21% return from gold, thanks to some pretty hefty central bank buying. REITs returned a solid 17%, commodities rose a respectable 15%, and although it was a weaker finish to the financial year the ASX200 returned an above average 12% – the same returned generated by Alts. In contrast, Australian fixed interest returned 3.7% and global bonds a paltry 0.9%.

However, in this latest quarterly update, Tim Toohey (Head of Macro and Strategy) details how the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and local economic factors leave him much more circumspect about the prospects for risk for the remainder of 2024.

Tim also touches on the importance of population growth which could well take centre stage 2024/25, explaining why it threatens to upend forecasts for economic recovery.