Recorded 9 April 2025

In our last quarterly update, Tim Toohey (Head of Macro and Strategy) made clear that President Trump’s policy setting were bad for growth, bad for inflation and bad for the prospects for risk assets in 2025.

At the time, he pointed out that President Trump would bring heightened volatility as markets return to being reactive to Trump’s love of making shock announcements which, as a result, had Tim forecasting US economic growth significantly below consensus forecasts.

But even we underestimated Trump’s intent and the haphazard way his tariff plan would be announced and delivered. The correction that has followed has been historically rapid and truly global in nature.

Recorded six days after the announcement, Tim sits down to make sense of a chaotic few months, provide his views on the prospects for recession, and detail the key implications for Australian markets as we move into the June quarter.