There was no reprieve in financial markets in the closing months of the financial year, in fact the losses sustained in bonds and equities in the June quarter were of historic proportions.

In the last 160 years of data on Australian bond returns, there have only been 30 that sustained a negative financial year return and only 2 years that have sustained a double-digit decline. The worst was the uncertainty surrounding Federation which contributed to Australian bonds declining 11.3% in 1900-01. Remarkably, this was almost eclipsed in 2021-22, when bonds declined 11.0%.

So where to now for economic data and global investment markets?

In our latest update, Tim Toohey, Yarra Capital Management’s Head of Macro and Strategy, details why he believes the US is flirting with recession NOW and outlines the three coming events that matter most for Australian investors.